At the prestigious New York Learning Hub, an audience of policy experts, journalists, and academics gathered to hear Prof. MarkAnthony Ujunwa Nze deliver his highly anticipated research presentation on the escalating food insecurity crisis in Nigeria. As a chartered journalist, editor-in-chief of People & Polity Incorporated, and a globally recognized expert in strategic management and leadership, Prof. MarkAnthony presented a riveting analysis of how intersecting crises, climate change, internal conflicts, and global disruptions—are exacerbating hunger in one of Africa’s largest economies. His research combines statistical precision with human stories, highlighting Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis and urging immediate action from governments, organizations, and communities.

The research presented by Prof. Nze is the product of an ambitious mixed-methods study that combines quantitative data from 200 households across Nigeria’s diverse regions with qualitative insights from 15 key informants. Through this meticulous approach, he identified the critical drivers of food insecurity and illuminated how global and local crises intersect to create devastating impacts on Nigeria’s food systems, livelihoods, and vulnerable populations. Prof. MarkAnthony began his presentation by laying out the fundamental role of agriculture in Nigeria, a sector that employs over 35% of the population and contributes nearly a quarter of the country’s GDP. Yet, this crucial lifeline is under siege.

Climate change, he explained, is rapidly reshaping Nigeria’s agricultural potential. In the northern regions, desertification has claimed vast swathes of arable land, forcing farmers to abandon traditional crops and limiting their capacity to produce even subsistence-level yields. Erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts have left farmers guessing when to plant and when to harvest, a gamble that often results in failed crops and empty silos. Meanwhile, southern and central Nigeria face the opposite challenge: annual flooding that not only destroys farmlands but also washes away entire communities. These climate shocks, Prof. Nze revealed, reduce household food security scores by an average of 2 points for each event, as shown in his multivariate regression analysis.

But the story does not end there. Nigeria’s ongoing internal conflicts, from the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast to herder-farmer clashes in the central region, have displaced millions of people, leaving them without land, food, or the means to rebuild their lives. “When conflict displaces a farmer, it does not just destroy one household; it ripples through the entire community, severing food supply chains and destabilizing local economies,” Prof. Nze explained. The study found that households exposed to conflict experienced a 3.5-point decline in food security scores, highlighting the impact of violence on agricultural productivity.

Global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war have disrupted food supply chains, leading to increased prices of essential foods like wheat, rice, and maize. In Nigeria, which depends on imported wheat, bread prices have risen, causing urban middle-class families to ration meals and choose less nutritious options. Families in cities like Lagos and Abuja often prioritize their children’s nutrition. A study revealed that price shocks reduce food security scores by 1.5 points per unit increase, emphasizing the vulnerability of Nigeria’s food system.

Prof. Nze’s work stands out due to its focus on the human aspects of the data. He provided accounts from farmers in northern Nigeria who experience difficulties with unpredictable rainfall. A farmer from Katsina State noted, “We used to know when the rains would come, but now it’s like gambling with our lives.” Displaced families in Borno State talked about the challenges of leaving their ancestral lands and relying on insufficient food aid. Market traders in Lagos explained the difficulty of selling food at affordable prices while providing for their own families. Prof. MarkAnthony highlighted that these perspectives are central to understanding the crisis and require immediate attention.

His presentation went beyond identifying the issue, as it also proposed a plan for solutions. Key suggestions included investing in climate-resilient agriculture with drought-resistant crops and sustainable irrigation systems, and enhancing conflict resolution methods to prevent violence over resources. He advised Nigeria to reduce its reliance on imported staples by encouraging the cultivation of local alternatives such as millet, cassava, and sorghum. Furthermore, he recommended that international organizations work together with Nigeria to develop resilient food systems, stressing that global problems require collaborative solutions.

Prof. MarkAnthony Ujunwa Nze concluded his talk by saying: “Food insecurity is not just about hunger; it is about dignity, justice, and the right to live free from the fear of starvation. The future of millions of Nigerians depends on our actions. We must act now.”

Professor Nze’s study stressed the critical need for a strategic approach to tackle Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis, underlining the significance of international cooperation to strengthen global food systems.

 

Abstract

Climate, Conflict, and Hunger: Unraveling Nigeria’s Food Insecurity Amid Global Crises

The issue of food insecurity in Nigeria has been a growing concern owing to the interconnectivity of climate change, internal conflicts, and global interruptions, particularly the COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. The research explores the interconnected dynamics among these and how they collectively affect Nigeria’s agricultural systems, livelihood, and vulnerable groups. The research uses a mixed-method design where the research incorporates quantitative information collected from a sample of 200 households in four geographical locations and qualitative information collected in key informant interviews with 15 key informants representing farmers, displaced persons, market vendors, and leaders. The research brings forth systemic and human dimensions of food insecurity and uses empirical information alongside narrated experiences in order to inform a comprehensive understanding of the food insecurity.

The quantitative analysis applied a multivariate regression model in determining the key food insecurity determinants. The results revealed that household income, shock events related to the climate, exposure to conflicts, and global price volatility had significant effects on household food insecurity indicators. In particular, a rise in household income by ₦10, 000 was associated with a gain in food security points by 0.02, while increased frequency in shock events, such as floods and droughts, reduced food security points by 2. Furthermore, exposure to conflicts, where herder-farmer conflicts and exposure to the activities of the Islamist extremist movement Boko Haram prevail, reduced food security points by 3.5. Furthermore, global volatility in prices, fueled by interruptions in wheat imports and increased costs in fuel prices, reduced food security points by 1.5 points in a corresponding rise in volatility. The high value of the adjusted R² parameter at 0.79 supports the efficiency and credibility of the multivariate model in capturing 79% variability in food insecurity results.

The qualitative results offer a complex understanding of information from a human anthropology viewpoint, capturing everyday life in food-insecure households. Northern Nigeria farmers verbalized how desertification and variable rainfall negatively impact conventional agricultural production, with uncertainty over their planting and harvesting times. Those displaced in war-torn areas narrated how war forced them out of their homes and agricultural land, and they are still dependent on food aid and are prevented from resuming agricultural production. Lagos and Abuja residents reported how increasing food prices have forced low-income households to eat fewer daily meals or replace high-cost foods with lower-cost foods with little nutritional value. The emotional consequences of food insecurity are captured in research participants’ descriptions, who reported hopelessness, embarrassment, and a perception of powerlessness in meeting their basic nutritional needs.

This research looks at the complex interlinks defining Nigeria’s food insecurity predicament in which global disconnections reinforce local vulnerabilities and amplify inequities. Strategies on offer include increasing agricultural production systems with a resilience to climate change, consolidating conflict resolution systems, decreasing dependence on imported staple foods, and implementation of targeted interventions among displaced groups and in urban households. Policymakers are advised to adopt a holistic strategy in addressing the root cause of food insecurity while preparing local communities to cope with emerging situations.

The study concludes that food insecurity in Nigeria is a humanitarian crisis threatening millions’ dignity, health, and future. It calls for urgent and sustained efforts from state, global bodies, and civil society to build resilient food systems and combat hunger.

Chapter 1: Introduction

Food insecurity has been the greatest challenge facing modern-day society globally, nationally, and locally, and in doing so, has brought the fragilities within food-dependent communities to the fore. In Nigeria, a country with such agricultural potential, the growing incidence of food insecurity is a paradox because many households are not in a position to meet their nutritional needs. What was previously a sporadic phenomenon fueled by localized drought is now a sophisticated phenomenon shaped by a complex array of forces: internal conflicts, global interruptions such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and climate change. Each is a major threat on its own; however, their combination with other forces makes them intersect and mutually reinforce themselves, ultimately forming a delicate position endangering the livelihood and life of millions of Nigerians.

Nigeria’s agricultural subsector, which is also the employer of over 35% of the country’s workforce, is a core area in Nigeria’s economy and food sufficiency. It is however finding it increasingly difficult in meeting the food demand of the growing population. Climate change has disrupted the traditional modes of agriculture with erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and accentuated drought and floods. In Nigeria’s north, arable land is being taken over by deserts, and vast tracts of fertile land are being reduced to desolate and productive wasteland. In Nigeria’s south and central parts, excessive rains and floods have overran crop yields, displaced crop producers, and made fertile land saturated and difficult to handle. Climate variability has undermined the vulnerability of Nigeria’s majority food producers who are the small-scale farmers, and in doing so made them facing enormous challenges in responding to the emerging conditions in the environment.

The deteriorating state of this ecological disaster is fueled by the ongoing threat of internal conflicts. Nigeria has been grappling with conflicts arising from scarce resources, characterized by a notable escalation in violent clashes among pastoralists and agriculturalists who are increasingly in competition with each other over scarce grazing and water resources. These escalating conflicts are fueled by population pressure and desertification, resulting in the disintegration of rural economies and forced displacement of thousands of agricultural households. In the northeast, the ongoing insurgency masterminded by Boko Haram has displaced millions, hindered agricultural production, and reduced access to arable land. The displaced population is over three million, ranking them among the country’s food-insecure population with a high incidence of malnourishment among children.

The situation has been worsened by global agitations that are restructuring food systems beyond Nigeria’s borders. The global health crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic revealed vulnerabilities in global value chains, resulting in a hike in prices and shortages in basic agricultural products such as fertilizers and seeds. In addition, the war in Ukraine has added on top of these problems by constraining global production potential and increasing the prices of bread and other staple foods in Nigeria, a country reliant on imports. The hike in prices and inflation made food a luxury in many households, especially in urban dwellings, where low-income family members are forced to make hard choices in meeting their kids’ need for food and meeting other basic necessities. Of particular concern is not only the scale of the disaster but also the complex interdependencies where global agitations spur local emergencies and amplify existing frailties.

This research aims to explore the intricate relations between internal conflicts, global agitations, and global shifts, and how their cumulative effects amplify food insecurity in Nigeria. The major concern in this research is to explore the contribution of these forces in food insecurity in the household level, what demographic and socio-economic features amplify these exposures, and how the population adapts and copes with these problems. Adopting a mixed-method research design, the research synthesizes quantitative information collected in 200 households with qualitative information collected in in-depth interviews with key informants such as decision-makers, representatives in non-governmental organizations, and leaders in local communities. By combining quantitative precision with knowledge based on experiences, this research aims to offer a comprehensive and multi-dimensional understanding about food insecurity in Nigeria.

A primary feature of the research is the quantitative measurement, utilizing a multivariate regression model in order to explore the interrelationship among key food insecurity determinants such as annual income, climate-related shock, exposure to conflict, and global price volatility. The dependent variable, based on these determinants—that is, the food insecurity score on a household level—is measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), a widely accepted measurement tool with a sound structure in order to assess food access and availability. By utilizing a process of regression analysis, the research outlines the impact of every variable on the broader topic of food insecurity and in doing so creates useful insights in reference to potential points of intervention with important implications.

Simultaneously, the qualitative dimension of the research provides in-depth insights and situational understanding, capturing the firsthand experiences of market vendors, displaced persons, and farmers who are facing this disaster on a daily basis. Their testimony portrays the humanitarian implications of food insecurity and reveals the level of desperation felt by women in trying to sustain their children, in addition to the destruction of livelihood among farmers resulting from forces beyond their power. In addition, their testimony brings out the resilience and resourcefulness demonstrated by Nigerian societies in overcoming the adversity presented by global insecurity, war, and sweeping global changes.

This study highlights the urgent need to tackle food insecurity in Nigeria through comprehensive and inclusive approaches. It emphasizes that policymakers should recognize the interconnected aspects of this problem, creating strategies that address climate adaptation, conflict resolution, and global market stability simultaneously. Improving Nigeria’s food systems requires cooperation among international organizations, development agencies, and local stakeholders. This effort involves investing in sustainable agriculture, community-centric conflict resolution, and infrastructure enhancements to boost food security.

The following chapters outline the study’s findings: Chapter 2 reviews existing literature on food insecurity, placing Nigeria’s issues within a global and regional framework. Chapter 3 outlines the research design and methodology, explaining the mixed-methods approach and analytical frameworks employed. Chapter 4 presents quantitative data, showcasing the statistical connections between food insecurity and its primary causes. Chapter 5 offers qualitative insights by sharing the experiences of those impacted. Finally, Chapter 6 synthesizes the findings, provides recommendations for addressing food insecurity, and discusses the broader implications of this research for Nigeria and beyond.

 

Chapter 2: Literature Review

Food Insecurity in Nigeria: The Role of Climate Change, Conflict, and Global Disruptions

2.1 The Global Context of Food Insecurity

Food insecurity has intensified worldwide due to climate variability, political instability, and economic shocks. The number of people experiencing hunger globally increased to 828 million in 2021, reversing decades of progress in combating hunger (Adeyemo, 2023). Climate shocks, such as prolonged droughts, desertification, and flooding, have disrupted agricultural production and limited access to food, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (Bright, 2024). Countries such as South Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia have experienced food crises exacerbated by conflicts and environmental degradation, similar to Nigeria’s situation (Igbokwe-Ibeto, Nnaji and Ozigbo, 2021).

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, is particularly vulnerable due to the convergence of climate change, internal conflicts, and global economic disruptions (Ayinde et al., 2020). While studies have examined these drivers independently, research that integrates these factors to provide a holistic understanding of Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis remains limited (Basheer and Idriss, 2024).

2.2 Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

Agriculture contributes over 24% to Nigeria’s GDP and provides employment for over 35% of the population (Bright, 2024). However, climate change threatens the sector’s sustainability through rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events (Basheer and Idriss, 2024). Studies indicate that rainfall variability has significantly affected staple crop production, such as maize, rice, and millet, particularly in northern Nigeria, where desertification is increasing (Fosudo, 2024). The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) projects that Nigeria could lose up to 40% of its arable land by 2050 if current desertification trends persist (Wahab and Iyiola, 2023).

Flooding is another major challenge, particularly in southern and central Nigeria. In 2022, over 600,000 hectares of farmland were submerged, leading to significant crop losses (Bright, 2024). Research links these floods to climate change-induced increases in rainfall intensity, compounded by inadequate water management infrastructure (Okibe, 2024). Despite this recognition, limited research quantifies the cumulative economic and social costs of climate-induced losses on smallholder farmers, who produce over 80% of Nigeria’s food supply (Popoola and Popoola, 2024).

2.3 Conflict and Food Insecurity in Nigeria

Internal conflicts, ranging from resource-based disputes to armed insurgencies, are major drivers of food insecurity in Nigeria (Fabian, 2023). The Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast has displaced millions of people, rendering vast tracts of farmland inaccessible (Eze, 2021). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Nigeria are among the country’s most food-insecure populations, heavily reliant on food aid (Igbokwe-Ibeto et al., 2021).

Equally significant are the herder-farmer conflicts in central and northern Nigeria. These clashes, driven by competition over dwindling grazing lands and water resources, have disrupted agricultural activities, particularly in states like Benue, Plateau, and Kaduna (Basheer and Idriss, 2024). Research shows that these conflicts have reduced farming output by 25–30% in affected areas, leading directly to food shortages and rising prices (Fabian, 2023). While the impacts of specific conflicts on food systems are well-documented, few studies examine their cumulative effects when combined with climate change and global market disruptions (Bright, 2024).

2.4 Global Disruptions and Nigeria’s Food Systems

Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis is also shaped by global disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, limited access to agricultural inputs, and triggered food price inflation (Adeyemo, 2023). The price of key staples such as rice and maize rose by 50–70% during the pandemic, disproportionately affecting low-income households (Ichoku et al., 2023). Movement restrictions during lockdowns further reduced farmers’ access to markets, exacerbating post-harvest losses and income instability (Agulanna, 2020).

The Russia-Ukraine war has added another layer of complexity to Nigeria’s food crisis. Ukraine and Russia account for over 30% of global wheat exports, and Nigeria relies heavily on imported wheat (Peterside, 2023). With global wheat supplies disrupted and prices soaring, Nigeria has faced sharp increases in food costs. A report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that bread prices in urban areas doubled between 2021 and 2022, illustrating the downstream effects of global market volatility (Wahab and Iyiola, 2023). The long-term implications of these global disruptions on Nigeria’s food security remain under-researched (Owusu and Malami, 2020).

2.5 Identified Gaps in the Literature

While studies provide valuable insights into individual drivers of food insecurity in Nigeria, they often fail to account for the intersections between these drivers (Basheer and Idriss, 2024). There is limited research on how climate change and conflict jointly impact agricultural productivity or how global disruptions exacerbate vulnerabilities in conflict-affected regions (Igbokwe-Ibeto, Nnaji and Ozigbo, 2021). Additionally, most studies focus on national or regional trends, overlooking the lived experiences of affected communities and their adaptation strategies (Eze, 2021). This study aims to address these gaps by integrating quantitative and qualitative methods, providing statistical rigor and human-centered narratives (Akanle, 2021).

 

2.6 Conclusion

This chapter examines the studies on food insecurity in Nigeria, emphasizing the effects of climate change, internal conflicts, and global disruptions. Although considerable research has been conducted separately with regard to each of these factors, their interrelatedness and additive impact is under-researched. By alleviating these gaps, the research aims to present a more realistic picture of the food insecurity problem in Nigeria using evidence-based facts representing the actual situations of the affected people.

 

Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology

3.1 Introduction

This research analyzes domestic disputes, international instabilities, and climate change in Nigeria as causative factors of food insecurity, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to enable an in-depth analysis. The research takes a sequential mixed-method design with an explanatory objective, with the aim of unveiling broad macro-level statistical trends in addition to personal micro-level experiences. The chapter outlines the research design, strategy, instruments, mathematical framework, and ethics relevant to the investigation. The integrative design, which uses qualitative descriptions and quantitative regression analyses, is based on a thorough understanding of food insecurity at both system and individual levels.

3.2 Methodological Approach

The study uses an explanatory sequential mixed-method design. The initial data is collected in a systematic way with the help of surveys on a sample population of 200 households in four geographic locations in Nigeria. The data is later examined with multivariate regression methods in order to identify food insecurity-related factors. Then, qualitative information is collected with the help of semi-structured interviews with a sample population of 15 key informants such as market vendors, farmers, displaced people, and local leaders in order to gain a better understanding and a better placement in the context. By combining statistical analyses with life experiences, not only are major structure-related problems revealed but also everyday experiences encountered are brought out.

3.3 Sampling Strategy

The research uses a purposive sample method with the purpose of ensuring that the participants represent a variety of views and experiences. The research includes four geographic locations: northern Nigeria with high vulnerability to desertification; central Nigeria with herder-farmer conflicts; southern Nigeria with frequent flooding; and in-town locations with food-related problems arising from high food prices. In these identified locations, a total of 200 households were randomly selected for surveys with a focus on market-accessible farmers, displaced people, and in-town dwellers. In addition, 15 key informants were interviewed based on specialized information or direct knowledge about food insecurity such as policymakers, NGO representatives, and local leaders. The above strategy is chosen in order to catch the multi-dimensional features of Nigeria’s food insecurity.

 

3.4 Data Collection Methods

Quantitative data was collected via a standardized interview aimed at assessing the level of food insecurity in households and the factors driving food insecurity. The interview included such annual household income, agricultural production, displacement experiences, vulnerability to weather-related shocks (drought and floods), and the effects of global food price volatility on food availability. Food insecurity in a household was measured via the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), a globally recognized tool utilized in food access and availability measurement over a specified reference period.

Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviewing with 15 participants. The interviews explored numerous themes such as how variability in the weather has an impact on agricultural production, how livelihood is affected by war, and how global agitations affect food access in a household. The interviewees were made free to share experiences and observations at a household level and a broader level, thus increasing understanding about the food insecurity costs on a human level.

Secondary data was collected from Government reports, global bodies (the FAO and WFP), and satellite imaging in order to augment the primary data. The dataset included information on regional weather conditions, agricultural production trends, and global food prices indexes, and these were incorporated in the quantitative analysis.

3.5 Mathematical Framework

The quantitative analysis employs a multivariate regression model to identify the factors influencing household food security in Nigeria. The model is expressed as follows:

Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+ϵ

Where:

• Y: Household food security score (dependent variable, measured using FIES).
• X1​: Annual household income (in Nigerian Naira).
• X2​: Number of climate shocks experienced (e.g., droughts, floods).
• X3​: Conflict exposure (binary variable: 1 = exposed, 0 = not exposed).
• X4​: Impact of global price shocks (e.g., inflation rates for staples).
• β0​: Intercept (baseline food security score).
• ϵ: Error term.

The coefficients (β1, β2, β3, β4​) represent the strength and direction of the relationship between each independent variable and household food security.

 

3.6 Data and Calculations

Below is a table representing the regression model calculations for Household 1 and Household 2 using the model:

Y=5+0.02X1-2X2-3X3-1X4+ϵ

Note: X1​ is income in units of ₦10,000.

Parameter / Variable	Household 1	Household 2
Income (₦)	500,000	1,000,000
X1​: Income (in units of ₦10,000)	50	100
X2​: Number of Climate Shocks	3	1
X3​: Conflict Exposure	1	0
X4​: Price Shocks	4	2
Intercept (β0​)	5	5
Contribution from X1	0.02×50=1	0.02×100=2
Contribution from X2	−2×3=−6	−2×1=−2
Contribution from X3	−3×1=−3	−3×0=0
Contribution from X4​	−1×4=−4	−1×2=−2
Predicted Y (Food Security Score)	5+1−6−3−4=−7	5+2−2−0−2=3

 

These calculations illustrate that Household 1, with an income of ₦500,000 (i.e., X1=50), 3 climate shocks, 1 conflict exposure, and 4 price shocks, has a predicted food security score of -7. In contrast, Household 2, with an income of ₦1,000,000 (i.e., X1=100), 1 climate shock, 0 conflict exposures, and 2 price shocks, has a predicted score of 3. These results demonstrate the measurable impact of changes in income and adverse conditions on food security outcomes.

Y=β0​+β1​X1​+β2​X2​+β3​X3​+β4​X4​+ϵ

where:

• Y is the food security score,
• X1​ represents income (in units of ₦10,000),
• X2​ denotes the number of climate shocks,
• X3​ indicates conflict exposure (in number of occurrences),
• X4 signifies price shocks (in unit increases),
• β0=5
• β1=0.02 (for every 10,000-naira increase in income, the score increases by 0.02 points),
• β2=−2 (each climate shock reduces the score by 2 points),
• β3=−3 (each instance of conflict exposure reduces the score by 3 points),
• β4=−1 (each unit increase in price shocks reduces the score by 1 point),
• ϵ is the error term.

For Household 1:

• Income = ₦500,000
• X1=500,000 ÷ 10,000=50
• Number of climate shocks, X2=3
• Conflict exposure, X3=1
• Price shocks, X4=4

Substituting these values:

Y=5+(0.02×50)+(-2×3)+(-3×1)+(-1×4)+ϵ

Assuming ϵ=0 (for prediction):

Y=5+1-6-3-4=-7

For Household 2:

• Income = ₦1,000,000
• X1=1,000,000 ÷ 10,000=100
• Number of climate shocks, X2=1
• Conflict exposure, X3=0
• Price shocks, X4=2

Substituting these values:

Y=5+(0.02×100)+(-2×1)+(-3×0)+(-1×2)+ϵ

Assuming ϵ=0

Y=5+2−2−2=3

In summary, using the model:

Y=5+0.02X1-2X2-3X3-1X4+ϵ

Household 1, with an income of ₦500,000 (i.e., X1=50), 3 climate shocks, 1 conflict exposure, and 4 price shocks, yields a predicted food security score of −7-7−7. Household 2, with an income of ₦1,000,000 (i.e., X1=100X_1 = 100X1​=100), 1 climate shock, 0 conflict exposures, and 2 price shocks, yields a predicted score of 333. These calculations illustrate how increments in income, measured in units of ₦10,000, alongside adverse conditions, affect food security outcomes in a linear, measurable manner.

3.7 Analytical Framework

Quantitative data was analyzed using Python’s statsmodels library to estimate regression coefficients, p-values, and the adjusted R2R^2R2 value. The results provided insights into how each independent variable contributes to food security outcomes. The adjusted R2R^2R2 value of the model indicated the proportion of variance in food security scores explained by the predictors.

Qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis in NVivo software. Key themes were identified, such as the emotional toll of food insecurity, community adaptation strategies, and perceptions of governmental and organizational interventions. The integration of these themes with the quantitative findings provided a deeper understanding of the drivers and impacts of food insecurity.

3.8 Ethical Considerations

The study adhered to strict ethical guidelines to ensure the safety, privacy, and dignity of all participants. Informed consent was obtained from all respondents, with clear explanations of the study’s objectives and data usage. Participants were assured of their anonymity, and pseudonyms were used in reporting qualitative findings. Special attention was given to the inclusion of displaced persons and other vulnerable groups, ensuring their participation was voluntary and conducted in a safe, respectful environment.

3.9 Conclusion

This chapter has outlined the mixed-methods approach used to investigate food insecurity in Nigeria, detailing the quantitative regression model, data collection methods, and qualitative analysis framework. By integrating statistical rigor with human-centered narratives, the study captures the complexity of food insecurity and provides actionable insights. The next chapter will present the findings from the quantitative analysis, focusing on the key drivers of household food insecurity.

 

Read also: Uganda’s Gold Crisis: Prof. MarkAnthony Nze Exposes Truth

Chapter 4: Quantitative Analysis of Food Insecurity in Nigeria

4.1 Introduction

This chapter quantitatively examines the causes of food insecurity in Nigeria through statistical analysis to identify observable correlations. By highlighting quantitative evidence from a highly crafted questionnaire completed by 200 families from four different regions of Nigeria, we present the role of the essential variables of income, climatic uncertainty, exposure to war, as well as changes in international prices, as drivers of food security at the family level. This is just one facet of our large-scale mixed-methods work, presenting the statistical basis for our evidence relating to this pressing matter.

4.2 Survey Methodology and Data Procurement

The numerical responses were collected through a highly crafted questionnaire whose aim was the collection of multiple indicators relevant to food security. The questionnaire was conducted in four targeted geographic areas: the dry northern areas prone to desertification, the central areas with pastoral versus agricultural people’s conflicts, the areas prone to flooding hazard in the south, and the urban areas with food price-related difficulties. Respondents provided details about their incomes per year, the frequency of climatic disruptions like flooding and drought, their exposure to conflict, as well as the level at which fluctuations in world prices affected local food prices.

4.3 Food Insecurity Measurement Using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)

Food insecurity was assessed using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), a globally recognized tool that quantifies household food access and availability over a specific period. The FIES has been widely used to measure food security at various levels, from individual households to national populations, providing reliable and comparable data across different socio-economic and geographical contexts (USDA ERS, 2024).

This method allowed us to generate a food security score for each household, serving as the dependent variable (Y) in our regression analysis. The FIES questionnaire captures experiences related to food insecurity, such as concerns about running out of food, reducing portion sizes, skipping meals, or going an entire day without eating (USDA ERS, 2023). Responses to these questions were coded to categorize households into one of four food insecurity levels: high food security, marginal food security, low food security, and very low food security (MSU Student Food Bank, 2023).

Food security is a multifaceted issue that extends beyond just availability. The 5 A’s of food security—availability, accessibility, adequacy, acceptability, and agency—are essential in understanding the complexity of food access disparities (USDA ERS, 2024). While availability refers to the presence of sufficient food supplies, accessibility ensures that food can be obtained regardless of financial or physical barriers. Adequacy relates to the nutritional quality of food, while acceptability considers cultural and personal preferences. Finally, agency highlights the ability of individuals to make their own food choices (Julius Baer, 2024).

Beyond these core components, food security is increasingly threatened by various global factors, including climate change, economic instability, food waste, and inefficient distribution systems (Julius Baer, 2024). These challenges exacerbate disparities in food access, reinforcing the urgency of addressing food insecurity at both local and global scales.

4.4 The Regression Model

To quantify the impact of various factors on household food security, we employed a multivariate regression model expressed as:

Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+ϵ

where:

• Y is the household food security score (measured using FIES),
• X1 represents annual household income, expressed in units of ₦10,000,
• X2 denotes the number of climate shocks (e.g., droughts, floods),
• X3 is conflict exposure (measured as the number of conflict incidents),
• X4 indicates the magnitude of price shocks affecting staple foods,
• β0 is the intercept (baseline food security score),
• β1 to β4 are the coefficients that quantify the effect of each independent variable on Y,
• ϵ is the error term capturing unobserved influences.

For our model, the coefficients were estimated as follows:

• β0 = 5,
• β1 = 0.02 (each ₦10,000 increase in income increases the score by 0.02 points),
• β2 = -2 (each climate shock reduces the score by 2 points),
• β3 = -3 (each instance of conflict exposure reduces the score by 3 points),
• β4 = -1 (each unit increase in price shocks reduces the score by 1 point).

 

4.5 Calculation Examples

Household 1:

• Income = ₦500,000
• X1 = 500,000 ÷ 10,000 = 50
• Number of climate shocks, X2 = 3
• Conflict exposure, X3 = 1
• Price shocks, X4 = 4

Substituting into the regression equation (assuming ϵ = 0 for prediction): Y = 5 + (0.02 × 50) – (2 × 3) – (3 × 1) – (1 × 4) Y = 5 + 1 – 6 – 3 – 4 = -7

Household 2:

• Income = ₦1,000,000
• X1 = 1,000,000 ÷ 10,000 = 100
• Number of climate shocks, X2 = 1
• Conflict exposure, X3 = 0
• Price shocks, X4 = 2

Substituting into the regression equation: Y = 5 + (0.02 × 100) – (2 × 1) – (3 × 0) – (1 × 2) Y = 5 + 2 – 2 – 0 – 2 = 3

These examples demonstrate that Household 1, facing higher adverse conditions with lower income, has a predicted food security score of -7, whereas Household 2, with higher income and fewer shocks, has a predicted score of 3. This illustrates how variations in income and external stressors significantly impact food security.

4.6 Analytical Framework and Tools

The quantitative data were analyzed using Python’s statsmodels library. This software enabled us to estimate regression coefficients, p-values, and the adjusted R-squared value, which was found to be 0.47, indicating that 47% of the variance in food security scores is explained by the model’s predictors. Visual representations such as scatter plots and residual plots were generated to ensure the validity of our model assumptions (linearity, normality, and homoscedasticity).

4.7 Conclusion

The quantitative analysis of food insecurity in Nigeria reveals that strategic factors—such as income, climate shocks, conflict exposure, and price shocks—are significant predictors of household food security. The regression model provides compelling evidence that increases in household income (when measured in increments of ₦10,000) lead to measurable improvements in food security, while adverse conditions such as climate shocks and conflict exposure detrimentally affect it. These findings underscore the importance of integrating quantitative methods into the study of complex social issues, offering actionable insights that can guide policy and intervention strategies aimed at mitigating food insecurity in Nigeria.

 

Chapter 5: Qualitative Analysis of Food Insecurity in Nigeria

5.1 Introduction

This chapter discusses the significant day-to-day lives of people who have been hit hardest by food insecurity in Nigeria. By intensively analyzing case studies and conducting semi-structured interviews with market vendors, farmers, internally displaced persons, and local leaders, the qualitative research reveals the voices of those deeply affected by the food crisis. Our aim is to put the statistically significant trends found in our quantitative research into perspective while documenting the intricate, everyday realities behind these numbers. This approach not only informs us about the systemic drivers of food insecurity but also highlights the resilience and resourcefulness of the affected population.

5.2 Disclosing Individual Interactions

The qualitative fieldwork reinforced the need to gather firsthand accounts from individuals who exemplify the interrelationship between climatic shocks, conflict, and economic pressures, all critical factors in the food security agenda in Nigeria. Throughout the interviews, participants explained their challenges with exceptional clarity. For instance, several farmers from northern Nigeria described how erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts have turned once-reliable agricultural seasons into high-stakes ventures. One farmer from Katsina State passionately stated, “We have no other option but to plant with uncertainty—in every season, the dice is rolled with the state of our lives as the stake.” These accounts emphasize the pervasive uncertainty that rural communities face as environmental changes erode traditional ways of life.

5.3 Themes of Adaptation and Resilience

Despite overwhelming difficulties, the qualitative study reveals a prevalent theme of resilience and adaptability. Many participants expressed the creative coping strategies developed in response to their challenging circumstances. At a vibrant community gathering in southern Nigeria, local market vendors explained how they have diversified their food supplies by adding drought-resistant foods and locally made alternatives to their markets. These strategies, born out of necessity, exhibit a remarkable capacity for innovation. Participants stressed that these projects have not only helped stabilize their food supply but have also spurred community-based initiatives focused on sustainable agriculture.

In addition, displaced families and local leaders from conflict-affected areas underscored the value of unity and cooperative efforts. Focus group interviews revealed that communities often come together as a unified body to pool resources, share vital information, and support each other during crises. One displaced parent shared, “In times of crisis, our people come together like a family. We pool whatever little we have, ensuring that no one goes without food, even if it means sacrificing our own comfort.” Such testimonies illustrate how, even amid systemic difficulties, the inherent resilience of the human spirit fosters effective, community-based solutions to mitigate food insecurity.

5.4 Barriers and Issues

While narratives abound with examples of resilience, significant impediments also emerge. A persistent challenge identified through the interviews is the lack of reliable support networks. Many participants complained about the slow response and inefficiency of both governmental and non-governmental support systems. Additionally, limited agricultural infrastructure and a slow adoption of modern agricultural innovations further exacerbate the situation. A local official remarked, “Without timely support and advanced machinery, our efforts are continually derailed by traditional practices and limited resources.”

Another notable issue raised is the persistent gap in dialogue between affected communities and policy-makers. Many interviewees expressed frustration over the exclusion of their immediate experiences and indigenous practices from the policy-making process. This lack of inclusion not only hampers the implementation of effective policies but also deepens the sense of marginalization felt by those who bear the brunt of food insecurity.

5.5 Synthesizing Qualitative Views

The qualitative data contribute vital contextual insights that significantly enrich our understanding of food insecurity. While the regression analysis quantified the impact of variables such as income, climatic shocks, conflict exposure, and price fluctuations on food security scores, the personal testimonies reveal how these factors are experienced on a daily basis. The narratives demonstrate that food insecurity is more than a statistical abstraction—it is a profoundly human experience marked by uncertainty, resilience, and a continuous struggle for survival. Merging these quantitative trends with rich personal accounts makes the numbers more meaningful and provides a basis for developing thoughtful, context-specific interventions.

5.6 Conclusion

In conclusion, the qualitative analysis in this chapter vividly captures the human consequences of food insecurity in Nigeria. The interviews and case studies highlight both the significant challenges posed by environmental and sociopolitical factors and the remarkable resilience and ingenuity of affected communities. These insights emphasize the urgent need for evidence-based interventions and policies that are sensitive to the complex realities of the people they serve. By engaging with the lived experiences of those affected, we can develop strategies that not only improve food security metrics but also restore hope and dignity to vulnerable populations. The synthesis of these qualitative findings with our quantitative analysis forms a comprehensive strategy for addressing food insecurity in Nigeria—one that blends statistical rigor with the essential human perspective.

 

Chapter 6: Synthesis, Recommendations, and Conclusion

This final chapter integrates the diverse strands of our research on food insecurity in Nigeria and translates our findings into actionable strategies. The chapter is organized into three sections: 6.1 Synthesis of Findings, 6.2 Recommendations, and 6.3 Conclusion.

6.1 Synthesis of Findings

Our investigation into food insecurity in Nigeria employed a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative data from 200 households with qualitative insights from 15 key informants—market vendors, farmers, displaced persons, and local leaders. The quantitative analysis was based on the regression model:

Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+ϵ,

where:

• Y represents the food security score measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES),
• X1 denotes annual household income (in units of ₦10,000),
• X2 is the number of climate shocks,
• X3 represents conflict exposure (number of occurrences),
• X4​ signifies the impact of global price shocks,
• β0=5 is the intercept,
• β1=0.02 indicates that each 10,000-naira increase in income improves food security by 0.02 points,
• β2=−2 suggests that each climate shock reduces the score by 2 points,
• β3=−3 implies that each instance of conflict exposure reduces the score by 3 points,
• β4=−1 indicates that each unit increase in price shocks lowers the score by 1 point,
• ϵ represents the error term.

Our model reveals a statistically significant relationship (p < 0.01) between these predictors and food security outcomes. For example, Household 1 (with an income of ₦500,000, 3 climate shocks, 1 conflict exposure, and 4 price shocks) has a predicted food security score of:

Y=5+(0.02×50)-(2×3)-(3×1)-(1×4)=5+1-6-3-4=-7.

Household 2 (with an income of ₦1,000,000, 1 climate shock, 0 conflict exposures, and 2 price shocks) has a predicted score of:

Y=5+(0.02×100)-(2×1)-(3×0)-(1×2)=5+2-2-0-2=3.

An R-squared value of 0.47 indicates that nearly half of the variance in food security outcomes is explained by these predictors.

Our interviews and case studies offer qualitative insights that enrich and support the quantitative data. Interview participants vividly described how climate-related shocks, conflicts, and economic pressures erode their agricultural livelihoods. For example, farmers in northern Nigeria described the unpredictable rainfall patterns that have turned traditional planting seasons into risky undertakings. In contrast, community leaders in central Nigeria lamented the destruction caused by violence, which not only destroys crops but also erodes communal hope. Despite these setbacks, many participants provided stories of community resilience, highlighting adaptive measures such as diversification of crops, sharing of local resources, and the use of innovative farming practices. These stories illustrate that food insecurity goes beyond statistical representation and impacts various aspects of daily life.

6.2 Recommendations

Drawing on our integrated findings, we propose several recommendations designed to mitigate food insecurity in Nigeria:

1. Enhance Economic Empowerment:
   • Increase Access to Credit and Financial Services: Implement policies to ensure that farmers and rural households have access to affordable credit. Even small increments in income can significantly improve food security.
   • Support Income Diversification: Develop vocational training and small business programs to reduce reliance on agriculture alone and buffer against economic shocks.
2. Strengthen Agricultural Resilience:
   • Invest in Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Focus on research and development of drought-resistant and flood-tolerant crops to mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks.
   • Implement Sustainable Irrigation and Land Management: Expand sustainable irrigation systems and adopt land management practices that maximize the productivity of available arable land.
3. Improve Conflict Resolution Mechanisms:
   • Enhance Peacebuilding Initiatives: Establish community-based conflict resolution programs to reduce violence and stabilize food supply chains.
   • Invest in Social Cohesion Programs: Promote unity among communities, especially in conflict-prone areas, to create a supportive environment that can withstand economic and environmental shocks.
4. Mitigate Global Price Shocks:
   • Establish Strategic Food Reserves: Create and maintain reserves of staple foods to buffer against global price volatility.
   • Support Local Production: Incentivize local food production through subsidies and cooperative support programs to reduce dependency on imports.
5. Enhance Data-Driven Policy Formulation:
   • Integrate Advanced Analytics: Develop robust monitoring systems using advanced data analytics to track food security indicators in real time.
   • Regular Policy Updates: Ensure that policies are continuously revised to reflect new data, emerging challenges, and local contexts.
6. Foster Community Engagement and Capacity Building:
   • Empower Local Communities: Engage communities in designing and implementing food security initiatives, leveraging their local knowledge and innovative practices.
   • Invest in Training and Education: Implement programs to improve agricultural techniques, financial management, and climate adaptation skills.

6.3 Conclusion

In summary, our mixed-methods study finds that food insecurity in Nigeria is the result of the interaction of different economic, climatic, and conflict-related factors in the country. Quantitative regression analyses show that a rise in income, measured at ₦10,000, can support efforts to improve food security, but climatic shocks, risk exposure, and price volatility strongly counteract such efforts. The qualitative supplementary information provides a more detailed, human-centered view of these findings, showing how the everyday difficulties of the affected people cut across larger systemic factors.

The proposed suggestions present a cohesive as well as realistic model for practitioners as well as policy leaders who seek food eradication through a systemic approach. By facilitating economic empowerment, improving agricultural resilience, supporting the advancement of conflict mediation efforts, mitigating the oscillation of world prices, as well as involving local people, the country can create a more resilient food system. Not only is the approach intended to deliver tangible results but also revive the hopes as well as the dignity of people, thereby laying the foundation for a more resilient tomorrow.

 

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Africa Digital News, New York